Week 8: Columbus St. Charles (2-5) at Jackson (7-0)

[ironman02]

Week #8 is already here. Can't believe it.

Interesting matchup at Alumni Stadium as the Ironmen will host the St. Charles Cardinals during Homecoming. Jackson is coming off a HUGE win at Ironton, while St. Charles lost another competitve game against an outstanding opponent, Canal Fulton Norhwest. The Cardinals have struggled against a tough schedule, but their 2-5 record should not fool you. They're a talented football team with a ton of depth (80 kids on their roster, grades 10-12), that doesn't really play anyone both ways.

St. Charles will be playing for pride, while Jackson is once again playing for their playoff lives. I'll be doing some number crunching this weekend to take a look at Jackson's playoff hopes, but in my mind, this is a MUST win game no matter what. The Ironmen will look to stay unbeaten next Friday night, but in order to do so, they'll have to play their most complete game of the season.

Here's a look at both teams' results so far this season. Thoughts on the game?

Jackson Ironmen (7-0)

Wellston - Won, 35-0
Waverly - Won, 49-0
AT Vinton County - Won, 42-0
AT Logan - Won, 49-32
AT Warren - Won, 42-17
Portsmouth - Won, 56-6
AT Ironton - Won, 28-22

St. Charles Cardinals (2-5)

AT Canal Winchester - Lost, 7-12
Columbus Eastmoor Academy - Lost, 6-14
AT Columbus Beechcroft - Lost, 7-14
Toledo Rogers - Won, 24-6
Columbus Crusaders - Won, 41-28
Columbus St. Francis DeSales - Lost, 10-27
AT Canal Fulton Northwest - Lost, 14-21

[NYFan54]

Jackson simply CAN'T afford to overlook the Cardinals. St. Chuck has played a whale of a schedule thus far, while the Ironmen haven't exactly played playoff caliber teams week in and week out. Good luck to the Ironmen, hope you make the playoffs!!

[ironman02]

JoeEitel has his computer rankings updated at this point of Week 7, and it looks like Jackson will stay at #8 if Cincinnati Indian Hill beats Cincinnati Madeira tonight. Madeira is undefeated, though, so hopefully they can get the win.

So that means that as I said in my original post, St. Charles is still a MUST win for the Ironmen. The win over Ironton gave them a boost, but it appears that there will be very little room to breathe. Simply gotta go 10-0...anything less and the Ironmen will putting their fate in the hands of other teams across the state.

[noreply66]

St Charles is better than Ironton

[ironman02]

Which is why, as I said, Jackson will need to play their most complete game of the season to get win #8.

Anyone who knows high school football can look at some of the names on the St. Charles schedule and see how difficult their competition has been through the first seven weeks. Jackson will be at home, and has a lot of momentum. Should be another close one, in my opinion.

[ACCBiggz]

And to add on to the whole "this is not a typical 2-5 team" for you ironman02:


St. Charles Cardinals (2-5)
AT Canal Winchester - Lost, 7-12
5-2, currently 9th in 2:7

Columbus Eastmoor Academy - Lost, 6-14
6-1, currently 1st in 3:10

AT Columbus Beechcroft - Lost, 7-14
6-1, currently 5th in 2:7

Toledo Rogers - Won, 24-6
2-5

Columbus Crusaders - Won, 41-28
2-5 (game doesn't factor in to OHSAA rankings)

Columbus St. Francis DeSales - Lost, 10-27
3-3

AT Canal Fulton Northwest - Lost, 14-21
5-2, currently 11th in 3:11

[ironman02]

Exactly, ACCBiggz. Several potential playoff teams on that schedule, along with some traditional powerhouses. And to add to that, St. Charles has really played with all of them. They've lost a lot of very close games.

[noreply66]

Go SEOAL

[Blackjack]

Jackson better bring their "A" game. St. Charles is a division 1 team and will be the best team they have faced this year. They are big and tall, and play very fast. Very similiar to the Zanesville team Jackson played a few years ago in Zanesville. Zanesville dominated every aspect of the game that night.

[coyote26]

JoeEitel has his computer rankings updated at this point of Week 7, and it looks like Jackson will stay at #8 if Cincinnati Indian Hill beats Cincinnati Madeira tonight. Madeira is undefeated, though, so hopefully they can get the win.

So that means that as I said in my original post, St. Charles is still a MUST win for the Ironmen. The win over Ironton gave them a boost, but it appears that there will be very little room to breathe. Simply gotta go 10-0...anything less and the Ironmen will putting their fate in the hands of other teams across the state.

I believe (if my calculations are correct) that Jackson would actually move ahead of Archbishop Alter if Portsmouth can beat winless Cincinnati College Prep tonight. So, if Madeira can beat Indian Hill, Jackson will be #6.

[ironman02]

Yeah, I think you're right, coyote26. I'm gonna do a lot of math and some projections later tonight. I'll be sure to post it all late tonight or tomorrow.

[superblue]

Hey 02, This blue devil is rooting for the ironmen this week.... Great win last week aganist the Evil Empire.... Play-offs can make for some strange bed fellows....LOL... Jackson needs to root for Wellston in week 9 & I-town next week.... Looking forward for week 10, could be very interesting.....

[ironman02]

I'm definitely looking forward to Week 10 also, superblue. Looks like the SEOAL title will be on the line once again, at least in some capacity. There isn't a better way to end a season than with a battle between the Ironmen and Blue Devils. Good luck until then. Hopefully we'll do our part the next two weeks to set the stage.

[ironmen85]

Let's go red this is one more step to the playoffs. I think Jackson can win this I like what they did against Ironton changing up the offense I'll predict
Jackson 35
St. Charles 17

[coyote26]

If Jackson would win out, I think they will end up #4. I built an Excel sheet and have been tracking the top 18 (even or winning records) in region 12. Based on my guesses for how those teams (and how the teams they beat do), I have the following:

1) Jonathan Alder (29.9000)
2) Shawnee (22.4000)
3) Logan Elm (21.8000)
4) Jackson (20.4035)
5) Archbishop Alter (19.7500)
6) Athens (19.5530)
7) Indian Hill (17.9500)
8) Taft (17.7327)

So far this weekend, I've hit 17 of 17 correct (wish I was that good on the SEOPS pick'um), with Indian Hill playing tonight. Haven't had a chance to check the second level points yet, but Wellston beating Alexander was an upset I didn't predict. That one will help increase Jackson's second level. Jackson's divisor will also drop to 99 after playing St. Charles because they played a non-OHSAA team week 5. While I am really hoping for 10-0, I think Jackson would still make the playoffs (but not a home game) if they go 9-1. However that one loss cannot be to Gallia Academy. We need their second level points. St. Charles and Chillicothe do not have a lot of second level points to offer, but we need all we can get in order to get the home game.

[NYFan54]

Using Drew Pasteur's site -



Playoff probability: Jackson - 94% (8W-17.5H-20%, 9W-19.9H-79%, 10W-21.9H-99%)

Home game: Jackson - 5% (10W-21.9H-6%)


Region 12 Projections:

1) Jonathan Alder - 28.85
2) Shawnee - 28.15
3) Thurgood Marshall - 25.48
4) Logan Elm - 23.15
5) Athens - 22.95
6) Jackson - 21.67
7) Kettering Alter - 20.80
8) Eaton - 18.90


Most likely to go 10-0 and NOT have a home game:

Jackson (7-0, D3 R12) 74% (94%)

[NYFan54]

Hope that's not too confusing, I'm on my phone trying to do all this. Clearly, Jackson just needs to WIN and let the football gods decide their fate.

[Ironman92]

Indian Hill/Madeira score?

[Ironmen44]

Maderia 26
Indian Hill 15
Final

[Ironman92]

Thank You I44

Thank You even more for the result.