Division V, Region 17

[wobycat]

Playoffs are about matchups. Valley, last year, was kind of in the boat burg was this year, not a strong region top to bottom. In the semis, valley matched up to kirtland on the line and was a play or two away. Valley will have a tougher road this time, while burg should try to take an advantage of weaker region.

[coop]

This region has no shot against Wheelersburg, as others have said, Valley is the best team Burg will play until the state semi-finals, IMO. Not a knock against the region, it's just the reality of the situation.

[siderman57]

Last year our Indians won a regional title and played 14 games. We lost to the 2 time defending state champions that were a late blown lead away from 3-peating. Out of those 14 games, Wheelersburg was the best team we played.

This year, the Burg will play at least 14 (IMO) games and I feel for the first 13 of those, Valley will be the best team they play.

I will set the total at 20.5 total points Burg gives up in the Regional tournament.

Jackson will be the Best Team the Burg plays in regular season this Year, Valley would be a close second ...

[Trojan_Pride]

Last year our Indians won a regional title and played 14 games. We lost to the 2 time defending state champions that were a late blown lead away from 3-peating. Out of those 14 games, Wheelersburg was the best team we played.

This year, the Burg will play at least 14 (IMO) games and I feel for the first 13 of those, Valley will be the best team they play.

I will set the total at 20.5 total points Burg gives up in the Regional tournament.

Jackson will be the Best Team the Burg plays in regular season this Year, Valley would be a close second ...

does that mean when valley beats them by 14 there is a huge flaw ???????

watch game 1 film valley it clearly shows burgs weakness!

[Jolly P(irate)]

Last year our Indians won a regional title and played 14 games. We lost to the 2 time defending state champions that were a late blown lead away from 3-peating. Out of those 14 games, Wheelersburg was the best team we played.

This year, the Burg will play at least 14 (IMO) games and I feel for the first 13 of those, Valley will be the best team they play.

I will set the total at 20.5 total points Burg gives up in the Regional tournament.

Jackson will be the Best Team the Burg plays in regular season this Year, Valley would be a close second ...

does that mean when valley beats them by 14 there is a huge flaw ???????

watch game 1 film valley it clearly shows burgs weakness!

What's that? Give up one long run for a TD? I CAN SENSE THE HATER IN YOU CG.

[Gray Fighting Tiger]

I am reading Pasteur's latest update on Ironton a little differently.

6W: 13.61 (13.05-14.57), 71% in, 1% home, proj. #8 (#4-out)

That says that if they win out to a 6-4 record, they have a 71% chance of making the playoffs.

http://www.fantastic50.net/team425.html

I did see that. He also has 48% a few lines above that...

"Playoff chance
48% now (need 6-4)
1% chance of a home game
54% with a win in next game, and 4% with a loss"

I don't know what accounts for the different numbers.

[Burg93]

GFT-
It's just showing that the odds of Ironton making the playoffs increase for each additional future game they win. Kind of obvious, I know, but it shows that if Ironton wins its remaining games, in 71% of the various scenarios as the teams they have beaten win/lose their games, Ironton will get enough 2nd level points to end-up in 8th or better.

[piratepride86]

Last year our Indians won a regional title and played 14 games. We lost to the 2 time defending state champions that were a late blown lead away from 3-peating. Out of those 14 games, Wheelersburg was the best team we played.

This year, the Burg will play at least 14 (IMO) games and I feel for the first 13 of those, Valley will be the best team they play.

I will set the total at 20.5 total points Burg gives up in the Regional tournament.

Jackson will be the Best Team the Burg plays in regular season this Year, Valley would be a close second ...

does that mean when valley beats them by 14 there is a huge flaw ???????

watch game 1 film valley it clearly shows burgs weakness!

I did not see any cheerleaders in the game 1 film

[seasick80]

CG, are u serious? U can predict what one run in week 1 can be the deciding game changer in week 9?

[Tjhtygeverve]

I truly hope Wheelersburg is better than I n game #1. I was shocked, with Ironton's offensive play, they didn't break thru the IHS "D" more often.
I also truly hope Jackson is much better than that loss to Wheelersburg. I thought it would be closer. I'm just trying to visualize, what burg can do outside of the region, if they should win. Obviously they should. This has got to be the weakest region in the division. (If not all)
I'm not sure about Zane trace. I just know they wore ugly socks in the Chillicothe gazette relays back in my track days.
I'm hoping burg lets someone takes out COLDWATER & brings one home!!!GO BURG!

[nutronron2012]

Nothing from week 1 will in any way impact week 9. Sounds like a little pot stirring. Week 9 will have its own game and its own outcome. And I agree about the strength of this region. I do not see any teams in this region that will be able to compete against the Pirates for 4 full quarters.

[wobycat]

Week 1 with burg was a healthy full strength ironton with motivation playing a burg team with a new QB and a few new lineman. Ironton at full strength is a good team. I don't think Ironton is capable even at full strength to win the region, but the win against them in the first week was a solid one for burg.

[Westfan]

I watched the Burg - Ironton game the other night on the zone. Ironton is very capable of making this a game if it were to happen again in the playoffs.

[nutronron2012]

Drews projections show Ironton missing the playoff even if they win out unless they get a lot of help

Region 17 Harbin projections
Updated 10/8/2015 10:36 AM
Week 6 complete
F50 region 17 home
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Eitel region page

Expected Harbin point cutoffs
For a berth 13.56
For a home game 17.25

Projected record and final Harbin points
1. Wheelersburg (10-0) 25.61
2. Chillicothe Zane Trace (10-0) 23.25
3. Harrison Central (8-2) 17.56
4. Albany Alexander (7-3) 16.25
(Top 4 earn a first round home game)
5. W. Lafayette Ridgewood (9-1) 16.20
6. Bidwell River Valley (8-2) 15.97
7. Ironton Rock Hill (6-3) 14.67
8. Coshocton (7-3) 13.80
(Top 8 earn a playoff berth)
9. Ironton (6-4) 13.61
10. Oak Hill (6-4) 12.15
11. McDermott Northwest (7-3) 10.81
12. Minford (5-5) 10.28

[fbnut]

CG, are u serious? U can predict what one run in week 1 can be the deciding game changer in week 9?

He has been wrong on just about every burg prediction he has made the last few years

[Neutron Man]

I Don't See Ironton with enough points making the playoffs!
Unless They Beat Ashland! No Win, No Playoffs!

a 6-4 ironton gets them 12.8 pts and that is based on following

cheseapeake 9 wins
rock hill 3 wins
Portsmouth 4 wins
coal grove 4 wins
south point 3 wins
fairland 0 wins

Drews projections show Ironton missing the playoff even if they win out unless they get a lot of help

Region 17 Harbin projections
Updated 10/8/2015 10:36 AM
Week 6 complete
F50 region 17 home
Region 17 playoff probabilities
Eitel region page

Expected Harbin point cutoffs
For a berth 13.56
For a home game 17.25

Projected record and final Harbin points
1. Wheelersburg (10-0) 25.61
2. Chillicothe Zane Trace (10-0) 23.25
3. Harrison Central (8-2) 17.56
4. Albany Alexander (7-3) 16.25
(Top 4 earn a first round home game)
5. W. Lafayette Ridgewood (9-1) 16.20
6. Bidwell River Valley (8-2) 15.97
7. Ironton Rock Hill (6-3) 14.67
8. Coshocton (7-3) 13.80
(Top 8 earn a playoff berth)
9. Ironton (6-4) 13.61
10. Oak Hill (6-4) 12.15
11. McDermott Northwest (7-3) 10.81
12. Minford (5-5) 10.28

Huh! Imagine That!
I think I said that!

[Trojan_Pride]

I watched the Burg - Ironton game the other night on the zone. Ironton is very capable of making this a game if it were to happen again in the playoffs.

I agree but those chest thumpers are hard to convince

[wobycat]

He said capable, not winnable.

[Jolly P(irate)]

I watched the Burg - Ironton game the other night on the zone. Ironton is very capable of making this a game if it were to happen again in the playoffs.

I agree but those chest thumpers are hard to convince

"Capable of making it a game" that's all he said. Unless you are agreeing with me about Burg beating Ironton again, then this is the end of the discussion my friend.

[Trojan_Pride]

That's all I said I agreed with "capable" ironton has a long way to go before even thinking of burg