D3 R11 Playoff Picture - Updated Thru WK 9

[ironman02]

Eastmoor back up 25-22 with 3:04 remaining in the 4thQ.

[ironman02]

Graville lost 49-7 and has officially been eliminated from playoff contention. No help from them for Sheridan tonight.

[ironman02]

Eastmoor won 25-22 over previously undefeated Columbus West. That should move them up to around #4 in the region for now, I would think.

[ironman02]

Beechcroft beat Whetstone 12-6.

Looks like all 9 of the contenders won tonight.

Jackson has Winton Woods tomorrow night.

[ironman02]

http://www.joeeitel.com/hsfoot/region.j ... &year=2016

There are 10 teams that are still officially alive for a playoff berth in Region 11. I haven't done any updated projections (and won't get the chance to until Sunday evening), but DeSales, Hamilton Township, Eastmoor, and Bexley have all clinched playoff spots.

Pretty much looks like Chillicothe, Sheridan, and Athens will be fighting it out for the last two spots. If Jackson beats Winton Woods, they will be in the mix too, but if they don't win tomorrow, they'll probably be out of contention.

If Chillicothe loses to Wilmington and Athens and Sheridan both win, the Cavs could get left out.

Athens has to beat NY, and even then, they still might get left out. They could potentially pass Sheridan even if Sheridan wins, and they could pass Chillicothe if they lose to Wilmington.

Looks like, mathematically, Whitehall could potentially get jumped by Chillicothe, Sheridan, and Athens (and Jackson, but only if they win tomorrow night), but that's pretty unlikely.

Definitely a lot of question marks.

[ironman02]

Beechcroft/Northland is actually a VERY important game next week. If Northland wins that game, it opens the door for Beechcoft to drop. That could play a big factor in determining those last couple spots as well.

[ironman02]

Here are my projections following Week 9. I think I had the L2 divisor messed up for DeSales last week. Not that it matters, but their average is gonna be a lot higher than I projected last week.

#1 - DeSales (10-0) - 32.3964
#2 - Bexley (10-0) - 25.4694
#3 - Eastmoor (8-2) - 24.0000
#4 - Hamilton Twp (8-2) - 23.6960
#5 - Beechcroft (9-1) - 23.3663
#6 - Chillicothe (8-2) - 22.4500
#7 - Whitehall-Yearling (8-2) - 19.6601
#8 - Sheridan (8-2) - 18.9000
#9 - Athens (8-2) - 18.4500
#10 - Jackson (7-3) - 17.0500

If Beechcroft loses to Northland, I think they'll finish at around 19.3990 and should still be in, but that could change the seeds up.

The big game for Sheridan is Tri-Valley/Philo. If TV wins that game, Sheridan will finish at around 18.9000. If Philo wins, Sheridan would finish at around 18.4000 and possibly behind an 8-2 Athens. There are several games that could be crucial for Athens and Sheridan, but to me, the biggest one is TV/Philo.

If Athens loses to N-Y, they're probably out unless Sheridan and Jackson lose. If they do beat N-Y, then it's gonna be VERY close with Sheridan.

If Chillcothe loses to Wilmington, I think they'll finish at around 18.2000, which could put them behind both Athens and Sheridan (if both win), so that's something to keep your eye on as well.

Jackson needs to beat Midland and then hope for Athens and Sheridan to lose. They could also potentially jump Chillicothe if the Cavs lose to Wilmington, but that would be next to impossible.

Here's what Drew Pasteur thinks...

http://www.fantastic50.net/r11proj.html

He has Chillicothe losing to Wilmington, but still getting in because Athens would have lost to N-Y. Everything else looks pretty close to what I'm predicting.

[Raider6309]

Sheridan and Athens will be very close if they both win. If Chillicothe loses, they are out

[ironman02]

Sheridan and Athens will be very close if they both win. If Chillicothe loses, they are out

Chillicothe can still get in if they lose. They would probably need Athens or Sheridan to lose though.

[Raider6309]

its two battles, getting in and getting the 7 seed since Bexley isn't very good compared to Desales

[ironman02]

Looks like the matchups are set for Week 11. Only thing left to see is where the 4/5 game will be played.

#8 Sheridan at # 1 DeSales
#7 Whitehall at # 2 Bexley
#6 Chillicothe at #3 Hamilton Twp
#4/5 Beechcroft vs #4/5 Eastmoor