D3 R11 Playoff Picture - Updated Thru WK 9

[ironman02]

I did some math this morning and tried to project the final standings for Region 11. Below are my projections, and then some explanations of different scenarios. Obviously I had to predict the outcome of a lot of games, so any differences in those outcomes could affect the projections.

#1 - DeSales (10-0) - 29.4724
#2 - Bexley (10-0) - 24.9082
#3 - Hamilton Twp (8-2) - 24.3500
#4 - Chillicothe (8-2) - 23.4000
#5 - Eastmoor Academy (8-2) - 23.2000
#6 - Beechcroft (9-1) - 23.1813
#7 - Whitehall-Yearling (8-2) - 20.0641
#8 - Athens (8-2) - 18.8000
#9 - Sheridan (8-2) - 18.4000

**Jackson at 8-2 would have an average of approximately 18.9500**

I think that DeSales is definitely going 10-0 and they'll be the #1 seed.

Hamilton Township should finish 8-2, and could be the #2 seed if Bexley loses one of their last two games (which is very possible). Bexley still plays Columbus Academy (7-1) and Grandview Heights (6-2), who are both good football teams. If Bexley loses one, or both, of those games, they will obviously drop down.

Chillicothe, in my opinion, will beat WCH but they could lose to Wilmington. If they lose to Wilmington they could potentially barely miss the playoffs at 7-3, but I think they would probably still sneak in. It would be VERY close though.

Eastmoor still has a tough game against Columbus West who is currently 8-0. If they lose that one, they could narrowly miss the playoffs.

Whitehall and Beechcroft will most likely win out and be in. Beechcroft could potentially jump up to get a home game if Chillicothe and Eastmoor go 7-3.

Now, here's where it gets really interesting. If Athens wins out, I think they could jump over Sheridan and get the last spot. At 7-3, they're basically out unless there's complete chaos. Like I said before, I'm projecting a lot of different games, so Sheridan/Athens could easily be flipped if something happens that I didn't project.

Jackson's playoff chances are hanging on by a thread. They MUST win out (which is gonna be VERY tough) and they might also need NY to beat Athens. I think Jackson can jump Sheridan if both teams are 8-2, and they could potentially jump Athens also, but it would be very close.

[doubleplay643]

Pretty good analysis, I came up with a little different scenario but we both thinking same way.

[redskinwitness]

I think Sheridan will be helped week ten because Tri-Valley will more than likely beat Philo. Granville is winning games now as well, those will help them out

[ironman02]

I think Sheridan will be helped week ten because Tri-Valley will more than likely beat Philo. Granville is winning games now as well, those will help them out

Yeah, at this point, I think I projected a Philo win in that game, but could easily go the other way. Just had Granville beating Lakewood in Week 10, but losing to Licking Heights in Week 9. Tough guessing game.

Sheridan just needs to root for Winton Woods to beat Jackson and NY to beat Athens and then they're probably safe.

[Raider6309]

No team is safe from 4 down.
Week 9 Eastmoor vs D2 8-0 west

Week 10
Athens vs NY
Chillicothe vs Wilmington
Beechcroft vs Northland

8-2 Athens will be around 20 and that might not be enough. Warren is big for Athens. End the season with D1 Parkersburg(6.5) and D2 Logan (6). Watkins ends with two teams they should beat D4 Licking Valley (5) and D6 Newark Catholic (4).

Even tho Sheridan beat TV, Sheridan ends the season with two awful teams

[Ohio1234]

Chillicothe Dropped to 8th we need Jackson Teays valley and Miami trace to win out and to win against WCH and I think even with a loss to Wilmington can squeeze in at 8 a win at Wilmington and finishing up 8-2 I see us around 5 to 6 I'd feel a lot better playing Hamilton twsp in the first round than desales again though. Region 11 is still wide open though big games to be played.

[redskinwitness]

I think Sheridan will be helped week ten because Tri-Valley will more than likely beat Philo. Granville is winning games now as well, those will help them out

Yeah, at this point, I think I projected a Philo win in that game, but could easily go the other way. Just had Granville beating Lakewood in Week 10, but losing to Licking Heights in Week 9. Tough guessing game.

Sheridan just needs to root for Winton Woods to beat Jackson and NY to beat Athens and then they're probably safe.

I assume Winton woods will beat Jackson, their schedule is brutal. I'd be extremely surprised to see Philo beat Tri-Valley, Sheridan just played a perfect game to break their 47 game league winning streak, doubting they lose two in three weeks. I think Chilli will win out. Beechcroft is the better of the city league teams, their loss was to Massillon Washington, eastmoor was handled by Granville who isn't very good. Every team should want to be the 2,3,6,7 seeds to avoid the desales beating until the regional final.

[bman]

No team is safe from 4 down.
Week 9 Eastmoor vs D2 8-0 west

Week 10
Athens vs NY
Chillicothe vs Wilmington
Beechcroft vs Northland

8-2 Athens will be around 20 and that might not be enough. Warren is big for Athens. End the season with D1 Parkersburg(6.5) and D2 Logan (6). Watkins ends with two teams they should beat D4 Licking Valley (5) and D6 Newark Catholic (4).

Even tho Sheridan beat TV, Sheridan ends the season with two awful teams

I wouldn't bet on Watkins beating Newark Catholic.

[X8XOHIOLEGENDX7X]

Don't much matter who gets in. This region belongs to desales but hope to see as many seo as possible

[EasternDspy]

I did some math this morning and tried to project the final standings for Region 11. Below are my projections, and then some explanations of different scenarios. Obviously I had to predict the outcome of a lot of games, so any differences in those outcomes could affect the projections.

#1 - DeSales (10-0) - 29.4724
#2 - Bexley (10-0) - 24.9082
#3 - Hamilton Twp (8-2) - 24.3500
#4 - Chillicothe (8-2) - 23.4000
#5 - Eastmoor Academy (8-2) - 23.2000
#6 - Beechcroft (9-1) - 23.1813
#7 - Whitehall-Yearling (8-2) - 20.0641
#8 - Athens (8-2) - 18.8000
#9 - Sheridan (8-2) - 18.4000

**Jackson at 8-2 would have an average of approximately 18.9500**

I think that DeSales is definitely going 10-0 and they'll be the #1 seed.

Hamilton Township should finish 8-2, and could be the #2 seed if Bexley loses one of their last two games (which is very possible). Bexley still plays Columbus Academy (7-1) and Grandview Heights (6-2), who are both good football teams. If Bexley loses one, or both, of those games, they will obviously drop down.

Chillicothe, in my opinion, will beat WCH but they could lose to Wilmington. If they lose to Wilmington they could potentially barely miss the playoffs at 7-3, but I think they would probably still sneak in. It would be VERY close though.

Eastmoor still has a tough game against Columbus West who is currently 8-0. If they lose that one, they could narrowly miss the playoffs.

Whitehall and Beechcroft will most likely win out and be in. Beechcroft could potentially jump up to get a home game if Chillicothe and Eastmoor go 7-3.

Now, here's where it gets really interesting. If Athens wins out, I think they could jump over Sheridan and get the last spot. At 7-3, they're basically out unless there's complete chaos. Like I said before, I'm projecting a lot of different games, so Sheridan/Athens could easily be flipped if something happens that I didn't project.

Jackson's playoff chances are hanging on by a thread. They MUST win out (which is gonna be VERY tough) and they might also need NY to beat Athens. I think Jackson can jump Sheridan if both teams are 8-2, and they could potentially jump Athens also, but it would be very close.

C





Can you do this for 23?

[EasternDspy]

I did some math this morning and tried to project the final standings for Region 11. Below are my projections, and then some explanations of different scenarios. Obviously I had to predict the outcome of a lot of games, so any differences in those outcomes could affect the projections.

#1 - DeSales (10-0) - 29.4724
#2 - Bexley (10-0) - 24.9082
#3 - Hamilton Twp (8-2) - 24.3500
#4 - Chillicothe (8-2) - 23.4000
#5 - Eastmoor Academy (8-2) - 23.2000
#6 - Beechcroft (9-1) - 23.1813
#7 - Whitehall-Yearling (8-2) - 20.0641
#8 - Athens (8-2) - 18.8000
#9 - Sheridan (8-2) - 18.4000

**Jackson at 8-2 would have an average of approximately 18.9500**

I think that DeSales is definitely going 10-0 and they'll be the #1 seed.

Hamilton Township should finish 8-2, and could be the #2 seed if Bexley loses one of their last two games (which is very possible). Bexley still plays Columbus Academy (7-1) and Grandview Heights (6-2), who are both good football teams. If Bexley loses one, or both, of those games, they will obviously drop down.

Chillicothe, in my opinion, will beat WCH but they could lose to Wilmington. If they lose to Wilmington they could potentially barely miss the playoffs at 7-3, but I think they would probably still sneak in. It would be VERY close though.

Eastmoor still has a tough game against Columbus West who is currently 8-0. If they lose that one, they could narrowly miss the playoffs.

Whitehall and Beechcroft will most likely win out and be in. Beechcroft could potentially jump up to get a home game if Chillicothe and Eastmoor go 7-3.

Now, here's where it gets really interesting. If Athens wins out, I think they could jump over Sheridan and get the last spot. At 7-3, they're basically out unless there's complete chaos. Like I said before, I'm projecting a lot of different games, so Sheridan/Athens could easily be flipped if something happens that I didn't project.

Jackson's playoff chances are hanging on by a thread. They MUST win out (which is gonna be VERY tough) and they might also need NY to beat Athens. I think Jackson can jump Sheridan if both teams are 8-2, and they could potentially jump Athens also, but it would be very close.

Can you do this for 23?

[thebarlowbandit]

Don't much matter who gets in. This region belongs to desales but hope to see as many seo as possible

What I was thinking....Winning out, hopefully your won your conference title, and then finishing 9th would not be that bad of a thing this year.

[NY BUCKS]

Dont bet on athens beating Ny..

[93Bulldog]

Dont bet on athens beating Ny..

Now you tell me. Thanks a lot. Lol

[doubleplay643]

Need Jackson to shock the world in Week 9 & 10.

Need NY in Week 10.

Need Warren in Week 9.

Need Logan in Week 9 and 10.

Need Wellston in Week 10.

Need Meigs in Week 9 & 10.

Need West Jefferson and Western Brown in Week 9 & 10.

Need Wilmington in Week 10.

That is all.

[Raider6309]

Athens Playoff Points
L1: 31 L2: 68.5

River Valley can add L1: 4.5 L2: 27.5
NY can add L1: 4.5 L2:33.5

L1: 40 L2: 129.5
Add L2: 4.5 Meigs over Wellston
Add L2: 5.5 Wellston over Vinton County
Add L2: 4.5 Meigs over Alexander

At the lowest possible L1: 40 L2: 144. 8-2 18.4

The points that aren't certain:
Watkins vs Licking Valley (5)
Watkins vs Newark Catholic (4)
Warren vs Parkersburg (6.5)
Warren vs Logan (6)

Athens 8-2 L1: 40 L2: 144-165.5
18.4 to 20.5


But Athens has a tough game with River Valley and NY will be the favorite over Athens.

[93Bulldog]

A win over Logan would have been nice, especially if they beat Ross and Warren. I said it that night, this game will cost Athens a playoff berth even if they beat NY week 10.

[Raider6309]

If Eastmoor loses to 8-0 West. They could be out. West is the mother load of points.
L1: 6 L2: 48.5

[ironman02]

Can you do this for 23?

Probably not gonna have time this week. Might be able to do Region 23 after Week 9, but not making any promises. Pretty busy week, so I apologize for not being much help.

Use this. Probably more accurate than anything I could do anyway.

http://www.fantastic50.net/r23proj.html

[ironman02]

Here's what Drew Pasteur thinks for Region 11. Obviously, I was a little more favorable to our area teams. He has both Chillicothe and Athens going 7-3.

http://www.fantastic50.net/region11.html