redskinwitness wrote:Rosecrans needs Prep to win for the second level points and ND to lose and they likely slip in. If Caldwell were able to beat Shenandoah it would really help the bishops as well. The point totals for the last few will be close
Incorrect with a Rosecrans win and HP loss they pass HP.
the way I saw the points is ND maxout loss was I think a 12.09 and if FCA won it was 12.19 and bishop was at a 12.2 or so. Wouldn't that put FCA and bishop in but nd out?
I may be wrong, I'm just going by drew pasteur's fantastic 50 but I think Bishop would need a lot of help from the teams they have beat and a lot of unlucky games for the rest 2nd level points to get in...
I think with Drew Pasteur's averages are highly weighted on assuming the favorites win for 1st and 2nd level points...
example: They only give FCA a 17% chance of winning vs Harvest Prep
They give Rosecrans a 1 percent chance to be a 7 seed and 12 percent of being a 8 seed.
with a loss PND has a 13 percent to be a 7 seed and 40 percent of being a 8 seed (totals 12 percent not getting in because they are 9 percent to be a 2 seed, 25 percent to be a 3 seed and 1 percent to be a 4 seed).
redskinwitness wrote:Rosecrans needs Prep to win for the second level points and ND to lose and they likely slip in. If Caldwell were able to beat Shenandoah it would really help the bishops as well. The point totals for the last few will be close
Incorrect with a Rosecrans win and HP loss they pass HP.
If prep and rosecrans both win and FCA and ND both lose the winners will both be playing week 11 in all likelihood. Those "max lose/max win" totals have a lot of moving parts. It could end up either way.
redskinwitness wrote:Rosecrans needs Prep to win for the second level points and ND to lose and they likely slip in. If Caldwell were able to beat Shenandoah it would really help the bishops as well. The point totals for the last few will be close
Incorrect with a Rosecrans win and HP loss they pass HP.
If prep and rosecrans both win and FCA and ND both lose the winners will both be playing week 11 in all likelihood. Those "max lose/max win" totals have a lot of moving parts. It could end up either way.
Pastuer has Notre Dame ahead of Rosecrans even with a loss
I am making the following assumptions.
That 1-8 frontier is not going to beat 9-0 river, federal hocking 0-9 is not going to beat 7-2 trimble, meadowbrook 2-7, is not going to beat Cambridge 6-3, Bridgeport 1-8 is nt going to beat Cameron 8-0, fisher catholic 1-8 is not going to beat Whitehall yearling 7-2, valley 0-9 is not going to beat Minford 5-4, west muskingham 0-9 is not going to beat 4-5 morgan, Loudonville 1-8 is not going to beat Shelby 8-1, hardin nordan 3-6 is not going to beat riverside 6-3, Jefferson township 0-9 will not beat 5-3 miami valley Christian, Malvern 3-6 is not going to beat sandy valley 6-3, riverview 0-9 is not going to beat Coshocton 8-1, st wendelin is either going to lose or forfeit to 3-6 crestline, Manchester 1-8 is not going to beat hillcrest academy 7-2, Toronto 7-2 is going to beat Madonna 1-7, lucas 6-3 will beat Lakota 2-7, buckeye trail 5-4 will beat Monroe central 1-8, bishop Rosecrans 6-3 will beat cotton valley 3-6,
Teams minimums maximums
1. Waterford 14.6687 16.4330
2. Trimble 13.2535 14.1121
3. Shadyside 11.957 15.7280
4. Sciotoville 11.5303 15.9710
5. Southern 11.1874 13.6589
6. Danville 11.3000 14.0000
7. Notre dame 10.0242 15.6720
8. Bishop Rosecrans 9.4800 10.2340
9. Buckeye trail 8.3170 9.5920
10. Harvest prep 7.8551 10.888
11. Fairfield Christian academy 7.384 11.2830
I think Waterford beats Belpre this leaves Waterford at 16.433 and the number 1 seed.
sciotoville is the team that can be almost anywhere on this list. With a minimum 11.5303 is in no matter what. If they lose to notre dame the only team that they would for sure get second level points is from eastern over linsly wva. 11.937 would be average. They could pick up extra points if south Gallia, alexander, green, or symmes valley. But lot of those games very close. If sciotoville beats notre dame and they get no other second level points. 14.506 if eastern wins 14.901. I think this is will they will end up even though they could get additional level 2 points from south Gallia, alexander, symmes valley or green win sciotoville should be 2nd seed if they beat notre dame
shadyside should beat bishop Donahue, the teams bishop Donahue has beat are 6-42. This would put shadyside at 14.518. they also could earn extra points with a Caldwell win or a Bellaire win. Both I think are toss up games. If Caldwell wins and Bellaire loses 14.886 if Bellaire wins and Caldwell loses 14.992. if Caldwell and Bellaire both win 15.360.
Trimble has a minimum of 13.2535 with only 1 game that would change total that is alexander over meigs. Think meigs would be favorite but they have really fell off. If alexander wins their average would be 13.7589
southern if they lose to eastern and sciotoville beats notre dame both of which I give at least a 33% chance of happening southern would be at 11.187 if southern loses and notre dame wins they would be at 11.54. if southern beats eastern and sciotoville beats notre dame 12.95 if notre dame beats sciotoville will be 13.305
I think Danville beats Bradford this leaves them at 12.7 average they would still have east knox, Fredericktown, and Crooksville all who would be underdogs to gain points from. East knox and Fredericktown would each add .4 to their total a win by Crooksville would add .5 to total.
Buckeye trail will have a minimum of 8.31 if the beat Monroe central the only other points they could gain is from Caldwell and Barnesville wins would give them 9.31 I don’t see how any team would qualify with this number
Fairfield Christian academy only shot at making it in is they have to beat harvest prep. This would give them 10.07172 they could earn extra points if st. bernardelmwood palace would win and berne union if both win could go as high as 10.930…
Bishop Rosecrans will beat cotton valley this will give them a minimum of 9.48 the only other points they could reasonably get is from Caldwell and harvest prep. If both won you would get to 10.23 max.
Notre dame has a guaranteed minimum of 10.0242. if they lose to sciotoville they probably still earn 7.5 2nd level points from grove city Christian and eastern this would put them at 10.78 wins by Manchester, green, symmes valley, or Fayetteville would continue to make this number higher. If they beat sciotoville the could be at 14.667
Harvest prep has to beat Fairfield Christian to have any chance of making playoffs beating them would give them a minimum of 10.780 they could go as high as 11.23 if berne union and madisin plains would both win.
svac83 wrote:I am making the following assumptions.
That 1-8 frontier is not going to beat 9-0 river, federal hocking 0-9 is not going to beat 7-2 trimble, meadowbrook 2-7, is not going to beat Cambridge 6-3, Bridgeport 1-8 is nt going to beat Cameron 8-0, fisher catholic 1-8 is not going to beat Whitehall yearling 7-2, valley 0-9 is not going to beat Minford 5-4, west muskingham 0-9 is not going to beat 4-5 morgan, Loudonville 1-8 is not going to beat Shelby 8-1, hardin nordan 3-6 is not going to beat riverside 6-3, Jefferson township 0-9 will not beat 5-3 miami valley Christian, Malvern 3-6 is not going to beat sandy valley 6-3, riverview 0-9 is not
iI dont think there is a actual scenario that lets bishop rosecrans or buckeye trail in
I don't want to quote the entire thing so others don't have to scroll, but this is a great read and very close to what very well could happen. Thank you for this.
svac83 wrote:I am making the following assumptions.
That 1-8 frontier is not going to beat 9-0 river, federal hocking 0-9 is not going to beat 7-2 trimble, meadowbrook 2-7, is not going to beat Cambridge 6-3, Bridgeport 1-8 is nt going to beat Cameron 8-0, fisher catholic 1-8 is not going to beat Whitehall yearling 7-2, valley 0-9 is not going to beat Minford 5-4, west muskingham 0-9 is not going to beat 4-5 morgan, Loudonville 1-8 is not going to beat Shelby 8-1, hardin nordan 3-6 is not going to beat riverside 6-3, Jefferson township 0-9 will not beat 5-3 miami valley Christian, Malvern 3-6 is not going to beat sandy valley 6-3, riverview 0-9 is not going to beat Coshocton 8-1, st wendelin is either going to lose or forfeit to 3-6 crestline, Manchester 1-8 is not going to beat hillcrest academy 7-2, Toronto 7-2 is going to beat Madonna 1-7, lucas 6-3 will beat Lakota 2-7, buckeye trail 5-4 will beat Monroe central 1-8, bishop Rosecrans 6-3 will beat cotton valley 3-6,
Teams minimums maximums
1. Waterford 14.6687 16.4330
2. Trimble 13.2535 14.1121
3. Shadyside 11.957 15.7280
4. Sciotoville 11.5303 15.9710
5. Southern 11.1874 13.6589
6. Danville 11.3000 14.0000
7. Notre dame 10.0242 15.6720
8. Bishop Rosecrans 9.4800 10.2340
9. Buckeye trail 8.3170 9.5920
10. Harvest prep 7.8551 10.888
11. Fairfield Christian academy 7.384 11.2830
I think Waterford beats Belpre this leaves Waterford at 16.433 and the number 1 seed.
sciotoville is the team that can be almost anywhere on this list. With a minimum 11.5303 is in no matter what. If they lose to notre dame the only team that they would for sure get second level points is from eastern over linsly wva. 11.937 would be average. They could pick up extra points if south Gallia, alexander, green, or symmes valley. But lot of those games very close. If sciotoville beats notre dame and they get no other second level points. 14.506 if eastern wins 14.901. I think this is will they will end up even though they could get additional level 2 points from south Gallia, alexander, symmes valley or green win sciotoville should be 2nd seed if they beat notre dame
shadyside should beat bishop Donahue, the teams bishop Donahue has beat are 6-42. This would put shadyside at 14.518. they also could earn extra points with a Caldwell win or a Bellaire win. Both I think are toss up games. If Caldwell wins and Bellaire loses 14.886 if Bellaire wins and Caldwell loses 14.992. if Caldwell and Bellaire both win 15.360.
Trimble has a minimum of 13.2535 with only 1 game that would change total that is alexander over meigs. Think meigs would be favorite but they have really fell off. If alexander wins their average would be 13.7589
southern if they lose to eastern and sciotoville beats notre dame both of which I give at least a 33% chance of happening southern would be at 11.187 if southern loses and notre dame wins they would be at 11.54. if southern beats eastern and sciotoville beats notre dame 12.95 if notre dame beats sciotoville will be 13.305
I think Danville beats Bradford this leaves them at 12.7 average they would still have east knox, Fredericktown, and Crooksville all who would be underdogs to gain points from. East knox and Fredericktown would each add .4 to their total a win by Crooksville would add .5 to total.
Buckeye trail will have a minimum of 8.31 if the beat Monroe central the only other points they could gain is from Caldwell and Barnesville wins would give them 9.31 I don’t see how any team would qualify with this number
Fairfield Christian academy only shot at making it in is they have to beat harvest prep. This would give them 10.07172 they could earn extra points if st. bernardelmwood palace would win and berne union if both win could go as high as 10.930…
Bishop Rosecrans will beat cotton valley this will give them a minimum of 9.48 the only other points they could reasonably get is from Caldwell and harvest prep. If both won you would get to 10.23 max.
Notre dame has a guaranteed minimum of 10.0242. if they lose to sciotoville they probably still earn 7.5 2nd level points from grove city Christian and eastern this would put them at 10.78 wins by Manchester, green, symmes valley, or Fayetteville would continue to make this number higher. If they beat sciotoville the could be at 14.667
Harvest prep has to beat Fairfield Christian to have any chance of making playoffs beating them would give them a minimum of 10.780 they could go as high as 11.23 if berne union and madisin plains would both win.
Think scenario 3 is right on.but the other 2 not to sure.Danville needs a lot of help from the under dogs to jump to 5.They get 10.5 level 1 and for sure 3.5 level 2 with Lucas.Crest line doesn't matter game doesn't can't for scoring already posted for their game.they probley need 2 of the other 3 to win.I would say probley eastknox.and fredricktown both need to win a crooksville win and one of the other two win il be close.Southern gets 14 level 1 and only 3.5 level 2. Max.I will go with Trimble 4 and Southern 5 that's with a ND lose.With scenario 1,2.Could be wrong ,rather play at home,but anything can happen.
i now know the scenario that puts bishop rosecrans. they need sciotoville to win, harvest prep to win, caldwell to win, grove city christian to lose, and eastern to lose, green to lose and fayetteville to lose. or they would need 1 of the other teams they have beat to pull a upset. they could slide into 8th and knock notre dame out.
My scenario is.Waterford 1 playing 8 ND.2 Sciotoville playing 7 HP. 3 Shadyside playing 6 Danville.4 Trimble playing 5 Southern. 2nd round match ups. HP PLAYING SHADYSIDE.With Shadyside moving on to Regional finals.WATERFORD Playing TRIMBLE.MY gut says TRIMBLE moving on to play Shadyside in regionals.I think Trimble will be more focused this time and ready to play.I said befor I think these 2 teams are evenly match the team that doesn't make mistakes and ready to play wins.A lot of young kids playing and probley have done better then most people thought they would do this year.But I hate to say it I think Shadyside wins this region,they want us bad and probley run it up if they can.Still Tomcat Pride
cats 
