Division III Region 9 Playoff Picture

[ironman02]

I had posted a thread in the old forum with playoff projections for Division III Region 9 after Week 8. Below is an updated projection with only Week 10 remaining.

Current Standings - Through Week 9

#1 Hamilton Township (7-2) - 20.7677
#2 Columbus St. Francis De Sales (8-1) - 19.6827
#3 Zanesville (8-1) - 19.2535
#4 Jackson (8-1) - 19.1611
#5 Columbus Bexley (8-1) - 19.0000
#6 Columbus Marion-Franklin (6-3) - 15.3968
#7 Columbus Eastmoor (6-3) - 14.6889
#8 Columbus Beechcroft (6-2) - 14.2399

#9 Chillicothe (6-3) - 12.7500
#10 Columbus Independence (6-3) - 12.6111
#11 Thornville Sheridan (6-3) - 12.5222
#13 Columbus Watterson (4-4) - 11.5057
#14 Whitehall-Yearling (5-4) - 11.2475

* Granville (currently ranked #12) has been mathematically eliminated.

Week 10 Games

Hamilton Township (7-2) vs. Circleville (6-3)
Columbus St. Francis De Sales (8-1) vs. Linsly, WV (4-4)
Zanesville (8-1) at Marietta (5-4)
Jackson (8-1) vs. Gallia Academy (1-8)
Columbus Bexley (8-1) at Grandview Heights (8-1)
Marion-Franklin (6-3) at Columbus South (1-8)
Columbus Eastmoor Academy (6-3) vs. Columbus Africentric (2-7)
Columbus Beechcroft (6-2) vs. Columbus Northland (6-3)
Chillicothe (6-3) vs. Wilmington (7-2)
Columbus Independence (6-3) at Columbus Walnut Ridge (6-3)
Thornville Sheridan (6-3) at New Lexington (3-6)
Columbus Bishop Watterson (4-4) vs. Cincinnati Winton Woods (5-3)
Whitehall-Yearling (5-4) at Lancaster Fisher Catholic (6-3)

Projected Standings After Week 10

#1 Hamilton Township (8-2) - 25.8672
#2 Zanesville (9-1) - 23.5500
#3 Columbus St. Francis De Sales (9-1) - 23.4763
#4 Jackson (9-1) - 21.9000
#5 Columbus Bexley (8-2) - 21.1758
#6 Columbus Beechcroft (7-3) - 20.0805
#7 Chillicothe (7-3) - 18.2000
#8 Columbus Eastmoor (7-3) - 16.6000

#9 Columbus Marion-Franklin (7-3) - 16.5041
#10 Thornville Sheridan (7-3) - 16.0500
#11 Whitehall-Yearling (6-4) - 15.1242
#12 Columbus Independence (6-4) - 13.3500
#13 Columbus Watterson (4-5) - 12.2837

* This is just a projected finish for the teams that are still mathematically able to make the playoffs.

Notes

I’m projecting that both Sheridan and Whitehall will win their Week 10 games, but I still don’t think that will be enough to get them into the playoffs unless they get A LOT of help. Watterson and Independence, with wins, could both sneak into the playoffs. If Watterson or Independence win, that would basically eliminate any chance that Sheridan or Whitehall would have.

It’s going to be VERY close between Eastmoor and Marion-Franklin. They’ll both definitely be scoreboard watching, because the outcome of their beaten opponents’ games will determine which of them finishes higher in the final rankings. They could both potentially make the playoffs, though, if Chillicothe, or maybe even Beechcroft were to lose.

Hamilton Township has a difficult game against Circleville. If they win, I think they’re basically a lock for the #1 seed. If they lose, I think they’ll slip to the #3 or #4 seed.

Bexley also has a tough game against Grandview Heights. If Bexley wins, I think they’ll be the #2 seed, but if they lose, they will most likely fall to #5.

I had previously favored Chillicothe over Wilmington in Week 10, but Wilmington almost knocked off Clinton-Massie last week, so I’m not so sure the Cavs are the favorite now. If they win, they’re likely the #7 seed. If they lose, they’re knocked out of a playoff berth by Wilmington for the second year in a row.

I think the rest of the potential playoff teams (Zanesville, DeSales, Jackson, Marion-Franklin, Eastmoor, and Beechcroft) “should” all win their Week 10 games.

Outlook for Jackson

Jackson can do no better than the #4 seed, and likely no worse than the #5 seed. They’re really dependent upon the outcome of the Bexley/Grandview Heights game. A win by Bexley means that Jackson is likely the #5 seed and heading to play DeSales (or Hamilton Township if they lose to Circleville). A loss by Bexley and they’ll likely match up with Jackson in the #4/#5 game. I think Jackson would likely host the game in that scenario, but they could also have to travel to Bexley.

[ironman02]

Two key games will be Chillcothe (6-3) at (7-2) Wilmington and Bexley (8-1) at Grandview Heights (8-1).

As mentioned above, Wilmington lost 29-28 last week to Clinton-Massie. I had previously favored Chillicothe to win this week, but now I'm not so sure. I'll stick with my original prediction, but a Chillicothe loss will really open the door for Eastmoor, Marion-Franklin, and even a few other teams.

The Bexley/Grandview Heights game is huge as far as seeding in the top half of the standings, and also in determining who gets a home game. Jackson fans need to be Grandview Heights fans on Friday night.

Also, Hamilton Township (7-2) at Circleville (6-3) is a big game. A loss by Hamilton Township could also really shake up the Top 4.

[doubleplay643]

ironman02, the Bexley and GH game is for a league title correct? And also senior night last home game atmosphere for GH I think?

[ironman02]

Yes, that game is for the MSL Ohio Championship. It is also senior night for Grandview Heights.

Grandview's only loss is 37-44 to Columbus Academy, who Bexley beat 31-20 after trailing 20-17 late in the 3rdQ last week.

I really think the game could go either way. Bexley did win 42-16 last year, but obviously that probably doesn't matter much.

[Raider6309]

By far the biggest game is Bexely vs Grandview. With a win Jackson would have to travel to Desales. Be the 4 and 5 match up. Wilmington should beat Chillicothe. Hamilton should beat cirleville. Hamilton has the most skill in the region. I'd love to see Hamilton vs Desales on a dry night. Marion Franklin is huge. To me, anyone can win this region. There's no team that can compete with Hoban week 14. But I thought that in 2013 and Marion Franklin gave them everything wanted. SVSM was nationally ranked

[Poo Bear]

Man it's fun when your team has played its way into a playoff spot. Congrats Jackson Ironmen

But I do think desales is best team I've seen in last 3 years in this region

[Raider6309]

Man it's fun when your team has played its way into a playoff spot. Congrats Jackson Ironmen

But I do think desales is best team I've seen in last 3 years in this region

That's hilarious. 52-20

[billcox]

Desales walks through region 9.

[Poo Bear]

Man it's fun when your team has played its way into a playoff spot. Congrats Jackson Ironmen

But I do think desales is best team I've seen in last 3 years in this region

That's hilarious. 52-20

What's hilarious ?
What's 52-20 ?

[Poo Bear]

Desales walks through region 9.

We'll see
It's fun being there though

[billcox]

It was fun being there in 1999.

[Poo Bear]

Making the playoffs is an accomplishment in itself
Congrats Jackson and all local playoff bound teams

[billcox]

Making the playoffs is an accomplishment in itself
Congrats Jackson and all local playoff bound teams

For schools such as River Valley and Alexander, yes it will be a great accomplishment.

[Poo Bear]

I take it Jackson going 9-1 beating the likes of Logan, west Jeff, Chillicothe, Granville, Meigs , and only losing to a superb wheelersburg is a bad season?
Haters gonna hate

[billcox]

I am certainly no hater! My agenda runs much deep than that. I wan't to see Jackson's program reach its full potential. That will never happen as long as the status quo is considered acceptable.

[Poo Bear]

Then what would you do different ?

[billcox]

1. Stop finding excuses to play local "Rival" schools. It accomplishes nothing.
2. Stop crying about the demise of the SEOAL and view it as a blessing. You no longer have to play the doormat league teams.
3. Schedule Up! There is only one way to prepare for the teams you will see in week 12 and beyond.

It really isn't that complicated.

[BobSugar]

Man it's fun when your team has played its way into a playoff spot. Congrats Jackson Ironmen

But I do think desales is best team I've seen in last 3 years in this region

That's hilarious. 52-20

What's hilarious ?
What's 52-20 ?

He's referring to when Athens beat Desales last year 52-20 in the playoffs.

[Poo Bear]

Jackson schedule is very good for this area.
No ones crying about the Seoal but tvc posters
The Seoal teams left will be fine
You will see jacksons schedule get better and harder soon

What does last years Athens team have to do with this years desales?
Desales is a whole new animal with new players

Last years Athens team was good but that's history and this years Athens team has a whopping 9 points

[ironman02]

Athens had a great run the last few years. It was a lot of fun to follow them, and I really wish they could have pulled out the win against Toledo Central Catholic. It'll be a long time before SE Ohio sees an offense as explosive as Burrow, Williams, and company again.

Definitely think this year's DeSales squad is better overall than last year, but we'll see what happens. Looking forward to seeing how things turn out Friday.