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First things first. In doing these projections, I assumed that EVERY team in Region 12, currently ranked 6-13 will win this weekend. That may not happen, but for my purposes, it shows how the region could shake out even if the teams in front of Jackson win. To calculate all teams' second level points, I had to assume who would win all their opponents' games. In almost every case, I picked the team with the higher record, but it's impossible to know how these games will go. That's where possible variations to my projections could come into play, which is why these are simply projections. I do think they should be fairly accurate though.
Dayton CJ has already clinched a playoff spot. They will probably lose to Kettering Alter this weekend, but it won't matter. A win by CJ would secure the #1 seed for them. A loss and they'll be #2 or #3. With wins, Logan Elm, Cincinnati Wyoming, Lemon-Monroe, and Goshen are all likely in. Lemon-Monroe is the only one of those teams who does not control its own destiny, but I still think they are in. I'm not sure how the seeding will work for these teams because I didn't do all the calculations for them. I'm assuming they're in, which takes up 5 spots in the region, leaving 3 spots still up for grabs.
I'm going to break down the projections for the teams currently ranked 6-13 in the region, which are the teams still competing for the last three spots in the playoffs.
EDIT: Added in calculations for teams currenlty ranked #1-#5
#1 Dayton Chaminade-Julienne
Current L1 = 37.5
Current L2 = 152.5
Week 10 Opponent: Kettering Alter (9-0)
I'm projecting a loss for Dayton CJ in this game. They will gain other L2 points as follows though:
Troy vs. Sidney - Win - 5.5 points
Thurgood Marshall vs. Ponitz Tech - Win - 3.5 points
Ponitz Tech vs. Thurgood Marshall - Loss - 0.0 points
Badin vs. Cincinnati McNicholas - Loss - 0.0 points
Bishop Fenwick vs. Dayton Carroll - Loss - 0.0 points
Dayton Carroll vs. Bishop Fenwick - Win - 4.5 points
Purcell Marian vs. Roger Bacon - Loss - 0.0 points
Roger Bacon vs. Purcell Marian - Win - 4.5 points
L2 Points = 18.0
**Badin could beat McNick, but to remain conistent with the other projections, I'm giving the win to McNick
Total L1 = 37.5
Total L2 = 170.5
L2 Divisor = 100
Projected Computer Average = 20.8000
#2 Logan Elm
Current L1 = 34.0
Current L2 = 135.0
Week 10 Opponent: Circleville (3-6)
With a win over Circelville, LE will finish with 39.0 L1 points and will have 149.5 points before adding in the L2 points gained by beaten opponents in Week 10 as follows:
Washington Court House vs. Miami Trace - Win - 5.0 points
Westfall vs. Piketon - Win - 4.5 points
Zane Tracce vs. Paint Valley - Win - 4.0 points
Hamilton Twp. vs. Fairfield Union - Loss - 0.0 points
Teays Valley vs. Canal Winchester - Loss - 0.0 points
Fairfield Union vs. Hamilton Twp. - Win - 5.5 points
Bloom Carroll vs. Amanda-Clearcreek - Loss 0.0 points
L2 points = 19.0
Total L1 = 39.0
Total L2 = 168.5
L2 Divisor = 100
Projected Computer Average = 20.7500
#3 Cincinnati Wyoming
Current L1 = 40.5
Current L2 = 122.5
Week 10 Opponent: Indian Hill (6-3)
With a win over Indian Hill, Wyoming would finish with 45.5 L1 points and would have 149.0 L2 points before adding in wins from beaten opponents from Week 10 as follows:
CHCA vs. Country Day - Loss - 0.0 points
Oakwood vs. Frankilin - Loss - 0.0 points
Norwood vs. Talawanda - Win - 5.5 points
Reading vs. Deer Park - Win - 4.0 points
Mariemont vs. Madeira - Loss - 0.0 points
Madeira vs. Mariemont - Win - 4.0 points
Deer Park vs. Reading - Loss - 0.0 points
Finneytown vs. Taylor - Loss - 0.0 points
Taylor vs. Finneytown - Win - 4.5 points
L2 points = 18.0
Total L1 = 45.5
Total L2 = 167.0
L2 Divisor = 100
Projected Computer Average = 21.2500
#4 Lemon-Monroe
Current L1 = 32.5
Current L2 = 120.5
Week 10 Opponent: Northridge (1-8)
With a win over Northridge, LM would finish with 37.0 L1 points and would have 125.0 L2 points before adding in wins from their beaten opponents in Week 10 as follows:
Meadowdale vs. Dunbar - Loss - 0.0 points
Valley View vs. Brookville - Win - 4.5 points
Bellbrook vs. Milton-Union - Loss - 0.0 points
Madison vs. Waynesville - Loss - 0.0 points
Carlisle vs. Dixie - Win - 4.0 points
Preble Shawnee vs. Eaton - Loss - 0.0 points
Dixie vs. Carlisle - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points = 9.5
Total L1 = 37.0
Total L2 = 134.5
L2 Divisor = 99
Projected Computer Average = 17.2858
#5 Goshen
Current L1 = 33.0
Current L2 = 118.5
Week 10 Opponent: West Carrollton (8-1)
I'm split on my projection for Goshen, so I'll give numbers for them with a win or loss. First, I'll show what I see for their other L2 points from beaten opponents this week:
Clermont Northeastern vs. Williamsburg - Loss - 0.0 points
Blanchester vs. Batavia - Loss - 0.0 points
East Clinton vs. Clinton-Massie - Loss - 0.0 points
Western Brown vs. Portsmouth - Loss - 0.0 points
Batavia vs. Blanchester - Win - 4.5 points
New Richmond vs. Greenville - Win - 5.5 points
Bethel-Tate vs. Bishop Brossart (KY) - Win - 4.0 points
L2 points = 14.0
With a win vs. West Carrollton:
Total L1 = 38.5
Total L2 = 175.5
L2 Divisor = 99
Projected Computer Average = 21.5772
With a loss vs. West Carrollton:
Total L1 = 33.5
Total L2 = 132.5
L2 Divisor = 99
Projected Computer Average = 17.2338
#6 Springfield Shawnee
Current L1 = 28.5
Current L2 = 121.5
Week 10 Opponent: Dayton Stebbins (0-9)
With a win over Stebbins, Shawnee will finish the season with 34.0 L1 points. They will gain no L2 points from winless Stebbins, but they do have a chance to get L2 point from the following games in Week 10. Shawnee's beaten opponents are listed on the left. Also included is my projection for Shawnee's opponents, along with the L2 points that I predict will be garnered for Shawnee.
Catholic Central vs. Mechanicsburg - Loss - 0.0 L2 points
Urbana vs. St. Paris Graham - Loss - 0.0 L2 points
Northwestern vs. Greenon - Loss - 0.0 L2 points
Greenon vs. Northwestern - Win - 4.5 L2 points
Kenton Ridge vs. Tippecanoe - Loss - 0.0 L2 points
Tecumseh vs. Bellefontaine - Win - 5.0 L2 points
L2 points = 9.5
Total L1 = 34.0
Total L2 = 131.0
L2 Divisor = 100
Projected Computer Average = 16.5000
#7 Washington Court House
Current L1 = 28.5
Current L2 = 116.5
Week 10 Opponent: Miami Trace (4-5)
With a win over Miami Trace, WCH will end up with 33.5 L1 points and will have 135.5 L2 points. They could also gain L2 points from their beaten opponents as follows:
Circleville vs. Logan Elm - Loss - 0.0 L2 points
Adena vs. Huntington Ross - Win - 4.0 L2 points
Madison Plains vs. London - Loss - 0.0 L2 points
Hillsboro vs. Greenfield McClain - Win - 5.0 L2 points
Western Brown vs. Portsmouth - Loss - 0.0 L2 points
London vs. Madison Plains - Win - 4.5 L2 points
L2 Points = 13.5
Total L1 = 33.5
Total L2 = 149.0
L2 Divisor = 99
Projected Computer Average = 18.4005
#8 New Richmond
Current L1 = 35.5
Current L2 = 105.5
Week 10 Opponent: Greenville (3-6)
By beating Greenville, NR would finish with 41.0 L1 points and would have 122.0 L2 points without the results of their beaten opponents in Week 10. The breakdown of their other L2 points from Week 10 are as follows:
Deer Park vs. Reading - Loss - 0.0 points
Mariemont vs. Madeira - Loss - 0.0 points
Bethel Tate vs. Bishop Brossart(KY) - Win - 4.0 points
Williamsburg vs. Clermont Northeastern - Win - 4.5 points
Clermont NE vs. Williamsburg - Loss - 0.0 points
Batavia vs. Blanchester - Win - 4.5 points
East Clinton vs. Clinton-Massie - Loss - 0.0 points
Western Brown vs. Portsmouth - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points = 13.0 points
Total L1 = 41.0
Total L2 = 135.0
L2 Divisor = 98
Projected Computer Average = 17.8755
#9 Eaton
Current L1 = 34.5
Current L2 = 106.0
Week 10 Opponent: Preble Shawnee (3-6)
With a win over Preble Shawnee, Eaton would finish with 39.0 L1 points, and would have 117.5 L2 points before adding in the rest of their points from beaten opponents in Week 10. The L2 points from their opponents are projected as follows:
Talawanda vs. Norwood - Loss - 0.0 points
Greenon vs. Northwestern - Win - 4.5 points
Brookville vs. Valley View - Loss - 0.0 points
Oakwood vs. Franklin - Loss - 0.0 points
Bellbrook vs. Milton-Union - Loss - 0.0 points
Franklin vs. Oakwood - Win - 5.0 points
Valley View vs. Brookville - Win - 4.5 points
L2 points = 14.0
Total L1 = 39.0
Total L2 = 131.5
L2 Divisor = 100
Projected Computer Average = 17.05
#10 Franklin
Current L1 = 29.5
Current L2 = 109.0
Week 10 Opponent: Dayton Oakwood (1-8)
With a win over Oakwood, Franklin would finish with 34.5 L1 points and have 114.0 L2 points before factoring in the wins of their beaten opponents in Week 10. Those L2 points are projected as follows:
Ross vs. Northwest - Win - 5.5 points
Greenville vs. New Richmond - Loss - 0.0 points
Milton-Union vs. Bellbrook - Win - 5.0 points
Bellbrook vs. Milton-Union - Loss - 0.0 points
Madison vs. Waynesville - Loss -0.0 points
Brookville vs. Valley View - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points = 10.5 points
Total L1 = 34.5
Total L2 = 124.5
L2 Divisor = 100
Projected Computer Average = 15.90
#11 Cincinnati McNicholas
Current L1 = 24.0
Current L2 = 98.5
Week 10 Opponent: Hamilton Badin (6-3)
With a win over Badin, McNick would finish with 28.0 L1 points and would have 128.5 L2 points before adding in the Week 10 points from their beaten opponents. Those point are projected as follows:
Indian Hill vs. Cincinnati Wyoming - Loss - 0.0 points
Dayton CJ vs. Kettering Alter - Loss - 0.0 points
Roger Bacon vs. Purcell Marian - Loss - 0.0 points
Purcell Marian vs. Roger Bacon - Win - 5.0 points
Fenwick vs. Dayton Carroll - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points = 5.0
Total L1 = 28.0
Total L2 = 133.5
L2 Divisor = 100
Projected Computer Average = 16.15
#12 Hillsboro
Current L1 = 34.5
Current L2 = 79.0
Week 10 Opponent: Greenfield McClain (4-5)
With a win over McClain, Hillsboro would finish with 39.5 L1 points and would have 96.5 L2 points before adding in the Week 10 wins from their beaten opponents. Those are projected as follows:
Western Brown vs. Portsmouth - Loss 0.0 points
GAHS vs. Marietta - Win - 5.5 points
Stebbins vs. Shawnee - Loss - 0.0 points
Blanchester vs. Batavia - Loss - 0.0 points
Madison Plains vs. London - Loss - 0.0 points
London vs. Madison Plains - Win - 4.5 points
Miami Trace vs. WCH - Loss - 0.0 points
L2 points - 10.0
Total L1 = 39.5
Total L2 = 106.5
L2 Divisor - 99
Projected Computer Average = 14.7075
#13 Jackson
Current L1 = 34.5
Current L2 = 76.0
Week 10 Opponent: Zanesville (8-1)
With a win over ZVille, Jackson would finish with 40.0 L1 points and would have 119.0 L2 points before adding in the Week 10 wins of their beaten opponents. Those are projected as follows:
Wellston vs. Alexander - Loss - 0.0 points
Waverly vs. Northwest - Win - 4.5 points
Vinton Co. vs. Nelsonville-York - Loss - 0.0 points
Portsmouth vs. Western Brown - Win - 5.5 points
GAHS vs. Marietta - Win - 5.5 points
Marietta vs. GAHS - Loss - 0.0 points
Chillicothe vs. Logan - Loss 0.0 points
L2 points = 15.5 points
Total L1 = 40.0
Total L2 = 134.5
L2 Divisor = 100
Projected Computer Average = 17.4500
Now, what does all this mean. It means that if teams currently ranked 6-13 ALL win in Week 10, and my projections of Week 10 games are accurate, Washington Court House, New Richmond, and Jackson would get the last three playoff spots in this region.
Projected Computer Averages for Teams Currently #6-#13
Washington Court House - 18.4005
New Richmond - 17.8755
Jackson - 17.4500
Eaton - 17.0500
Shawnee - 16.5000
McNicholas - 16.15
Franklin - 15.9000
Hillsboro - 14.7075
***Wins by Indian Hill (#14) and Greenfield McClain (#15) would not give them enough points to make the playoffs unless teams ranked #6-13# lost.
In the above scenario, Jackson will be the #8 seed in Region 12. They could potentially be as high as the #6 seed, but that's only if New Richmond and Washington lose, or if those two teams' beaten opponents don't win the games that I projected them to win. There's also the possibility that things don't work out as I projected, which could leave Jackson on the outside looking in, even with a win over Zanesville. I honestly believe, however, that if Jackson wins, they should get in.
EDIT: After looking at possible results for Lemon-Monroe's opponents, it is very possible that Washington Court House, New Richmond, and Jackson could ALL pass them, even if Lemon-Monroe wins this week. Goshen has a tough opponent, and a loss by them, could also allow WCH, NR, and Jackson to pass them as well. A Goshen win could lift them all the way to the #1 seed. Eaton is a wildcard in the entire situation. Their beaten opponents could sneak them into the #8 spot or maybe even a little higher. It would appear that Jackson may be safe from Eaton knocking them out of the playoffs as long as Lemon-Monroe falls below them.
Here's how I see the entire region playing out, according to my projections.
With a Goshen win this week:
#1. Goshen - 21.5772
#2. Wyoming - 21.2500
#3. Dayton CJ - 20.8000
#4. Logan Elm - 20.7500
#5. Court House - 18.4005
#6. New Richmond - 17.8755
#7. Jackson - 17.4500
#8. Lemon-Monroe - 17.2858
#9. Eaton - 17.0500
#10. Shawnee - 16.5000
#11. McNicholas - 16.1500
#12. Franklin - 15.9000
#13. Hillsboro - 14.7075
***Indian Hill or McClain could rank higher than #14 or #15 with wins, but they still wouldnt make the playoffs in this scenario.
With a Goshen Loss this week:
#1. Wyoming - 21.2500
#2. Dayton CJ - 20.8000
#3. Logan Elm - 20.7500
#4. Court House - 18.4005
#5. New Richmond - 17.8755
#6. Jackson - 17.4500
#7. Lemon-Monroe - 17.2858
#8. Goshen - 17.2338
#9. Eaton - 17.0500
#10. Shawnee - 16.5000
#11. McNicholas - 16.1500
#12. Franklin - 15.9000
#13. Hillsboro - 14.7075
***Indian Hill or McClain could rank higher than #14 or #15 with wins, but they still wouldnt make the playoffs in this scenario.
Lastly, this was a huge waste of my time unless Jackson beats Zanesville.
So, let's go Ironmen! BEAT ZANESVILLE AND LIVE TO PLAY WEEK 11!!!
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) thought you would struggle a little due to the staff change and such . 
